The Brisbane market – consider today AND tomorrow!
Whether you’re looking to sell or buy, the way forward for the Brisbane market might look confusing right now. You’ve read that our prices have spiked 18% in the past 12 months. Buyers are frantically submitting multiple offers and competing hard for limited listings. And now the CBA, Josh Frydenberg and even Aussie John Symonds are all in the media this week, talking the market down and urging caution on borrowing.
Which way is the Brisbane market really headed? Here’s a look at what our team is witnessing first hand, to help you reach your own conclusions (without the “sell now!!” hype agents are stuffing in your inbox/letterbox!)
- The lifts in prices right now are palpable. Houses rose first but by early 2021 townhouses and larger apartments had also become hot property. The buyer demand came in like seismic ripples: we then saw rising interest in 2 bed apartments. And in the past month or so the smaller stock including 1 bedders have seen some staggering demand and price uplifts.
- How has this played out in the market? We’ve had property sell that had been on our books for a long time, for example. For more than a year (okay – one was more than 2 years!). These owners chose to wait the market out and eventually the rising tide lifted all boats. One sold to the daughter of a real estate agent. For full price. That’s how we know prices are spiking.
- Right now many, many inner-Brisbane sales are happening off-market, with agents offering new listings to their buyer databases before any public campaign, saving their sellers thousands in marketing costs. It’s a reminder to serious buyers to register your interest with local agents as you need to be on their lists.
- Buyers are very quick to move. They’ve often missed other property in bidding wars and multiple offers. They know prices, often better than some agents, and are watching the market intently and are not scared to overpay slightly. They are scared of missing out and (along with the banks’ valuers) are forward looking.
- Supply is incredibly tight. CoreLogic’s latest stats show we’ve got less property coming onto the Brisbane market right now (4% less than our 5 year average), so buyers are understandably frustrated with the lack of listings. Our sellers are often surprised by the speed of results. They’ve heard what they thought was hype, but are genuinely caught off guard when we secure multiple offers at the top end of our appraisal range.
- Unsurprisingly some property owners are deciding to make their move and list their properties. Get on with their plans, commit to a sale and take advantage of this very strong market.
- Investors are clearly coming back, with our last four sales all to be rental properties for their new owners. But despite the ABS stats showing investor lending climbing rapidly, they’re still not a dominant part of the Brisbane market. First home buyers and upgraders are keeping us busy.
- The closed Queensland borders are having an impact on our rental market, with a flattening of demand as southern tenants postpone their moves. Rents are still strong, but the inner city has its weak spots without international students and travelers. We know recent (pre lock-down) population growth numbers have been huge, so a growing rental undersupply in 2022 may be an issue.
- While there’s some apartment construction underway, the lack of cranes on the skyline is quite noticeable. Future inner-Brisbane apartment supply is still some time away.
This strong run of price growth is not exactly uncharted waters for our city. In 2003 our prices surged 32% and then in 2007 rose another 23%. But while the Sydney/Melbourne-focused media write about their “overheated markets”, little of the analysis follows Brisbane where our median dwelling price is now just a bit more than half of Sydney’s.
So which way do you see Brisbane’s market changing from here?
Or here’s another question for you… What will matter to you in 10 years’ time? Forget the short-term twists and turns of the market for a moment and consider your bigger plans for selling. And buying.
Maybe it’s best we ignore the market noise and do more of that!