Posted by Rob Honeycombe on 31 October 2011
How do you know when the market has bottomed? Only once prices go back up. So today’s announcement from RP Data that Brisbane dwelling prices went up 0.4% in September could be a positive sign for our local market. According to the new stats Brisbane has a median price of $415,000 and RP Data’s Tim Lawless says “Housing market conditions are starting to show some green shoots now.” He says that across the nation’s capitals the September data is the best we’ve seen since February.
Brisbane real estate agents ready to call a start to the next boom might do well to take a close look at the numbers. The September gain in our median dwelling price followed a 0.4% drop in August so year on year we’re still down 6.1%.
No matter how you spin it though you’d have to say this is a good time to buy.
Tags: Brisbane house prices, Brisbane median home prices, Brisbane real estate agents, RP Data, Tim Lawless
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Posted by admin on 6 September 2011
It’s hard to imagine a time when we didn’t have full-streaming real estate data bombarding us. Now there’s a number of national and local commentators producing emails, blogs, newsletters, reports and updates. So to help you digest it all here’s a Cook’s tour of the latest:
RP Data say Brisbane’s dwelling prices went down 0.4% in July (or $1,700) for a total 6.6% dip over the past 12 months. Brisbane unit owners can punch the air – your median price apparently rose 0.4% in July, while house-owners lost 0.6%. Their Tim Lawless says the upper end of the capital city markets is being hardest hit and times on market have increased across the board. “If these soft trends persist, the Spring Selling Season is likely to open up some attractive investment opportunities for prospective buyers. In contrast, the selling environment is likely to be challenging for vendors, particularly if they have unrealistic price expectations,” Mr Lawless said.
Analyst Michael Matusik says the data suggests the worst may be behind us, with the monthly and quarterly results starting to trend upwards. “Even Brisbane, with the impact of the recent flood weighing down its property market, has fallen just 2.6% or by $11,600 since January. The Australian sharemarket can fall more than this in a single day.” Matusik says most property owners are still ahead. “Just one in 14 resales across Australia over the last decade made a loss. Importantly, close to half of the sellers since early 2000 made an annual gain of over 10% per annum. Keep in mind that capital growth can be deceptive as most measures exclude inflation, costs, taxes and charges. But still, such a positive result is encouraging.”
And first home buyer may be back in the market and taking advantage of good buying. Home loan approvals from first-home buyers jumped to 35% in June, compared with an average of 27%, according to mortgage broker Mortgage Choice. Mortgage Choice says a drop in first-home buyers during the last financial year made it hard for existing home owners to sell before moving onto their next property. Mortgage Choice CEO Michael Russell attributed the fall in numbers to the ending of the boosted first-home owners’ grant, which he says brought forward purchases in 2009 and 2010.
Tags: Brisbane median home prices, first home buyers, Michael Matusik, RP Data, selling a house Brisbane, selling an apartment Brisbane, Tim Lawless
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Posted by admin on 10 August 2011
For this week’s newsletter we just wanted to share the graph below from www.myRP.com.au. This charts the changes in Brisbane’s median prices over the past 10 years. When the line’s above zero prices were going up. Below the line is when we’ve had drops in values.
The media love stories about booms and crashes. As home owners, or would-be home owners, we often fret and stress over the ups and downs of the market. Right now many Brisbane property owners are postponing major changes in their lives because prices are down. They won’t move home until they go back up. Or they won’t sell til they get more than the last sale in their neighbourhood.
In the context of a single year’s market the current changes in price can seem enormous. But maybe this graph will help some readers see things in a different light, a new perspective. It’s a nice reminder that things are still pretty good.
And at worst it’s a pretty graph!
graph courtesy myRP.com.au
Tags: Brisbane home prices, Brisbane median home prices, RP Data, selling a house Brisbane, selling an apartment Brisbane
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Posted by admin on 1 July 2011
It’s a bit early for real estate agents to start popping champagne, but a new report says we had a 0.2% rise in our median price for the month of May. RP Data-Rismark’s data shows our prices may have bottomed. For the March – May quarter they report a drop of 1.5% so while that May increase might not seem like a big number it’s fairly encouraging!
On the ground this feels right to us. Many sellers are withdrawing from sale and, while buyers are still hesitant, wise heads amongst them say the current prices look like great value.
National valuation firm HTW says this is a time to buy. “Our staff are daily surprised by the seemingly affordable property on offer all around the place and if ever there were a time to have a lazy half million, it would be now. You would find yourself very comfortably looking in a number of areas that seemed until recently out of reach. Think inner city hotspots driven by the café lifestyle.”
Tags: Brisbane apartment prices, Brisbane home prices, Brisbane house prices, Brisbane median home prices, Brisbane real estate agents, home buyers Brisbane, RP Data
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Posted by Rob Honeycombe on 25 May 2011
Out there somewhere is a place called Buyer School and they teach home buyers all the questions they need to ask agents. There must be – because at any open home there’ll be at least one buyer who’ll ask us: “So how long it’s been on the market?”, with just a glint in their eye that adds “and I’ll know if you’re bluffing!”
Apparently any answer of more than 3 weeks allows the buyer to nod knowingly and think “So no-one wants this one.”
One of the prominent market researchers is reporting Brisbane’s average days on market as 85 for a house and 90 days for an apartment. So if you buy a place that’s been for sale for 12-13 weeks that just makes you average. And out of interest one American Realtor’s blog we follow reports her local market has an average days on market of 180 – and their market’s improved.
So is this really the most important question for home buyers? Often, more often than not, the seller’s asking price has been adjusted since the home came on the market. RP Data report Brisbane sellers are currently dropping their prices almost 8% between that first day on the market and the final agreed price. Usually the final asking price, the list price at the time the sale happens, is only a couple of a percent higher than the final sale.
Could a better question be: “How long’s it been for sale at this price?” And here’s an insider’s tip: often sellers have run marketing campaigns in their early stages and after a few weeks on the market they’re left with just the web in their promotional toolbox. Less promotion means less enquiry and when interest is lowest that’s your best opportunity to buy well.
Ironically we all desire something most when it’s fresh, sought-after by the crowds and there’s a buzz around the place. In other words, when it’s at its dearest price. For my money I’d do my homework, seek out the place that really suits me, the home that fits the bill, and ignore the crowds. That’s what they should teach at Buyer School!
Tags: Brisbane days on market, Brisbane home prices, Brisbane real estate agents, Brisbane time on market, home buyers Brisbane, promotion, RP Data, vendor discounting Brisbane
Posted in Brisbane's sales market, real estate marketing | 1 Comment »
Posted by admin on 3 May 2011
Latest info from the RP Data Rismark Home Value report shows Brisbane’s house prices have been the worst performing of any capital city over the past year, with our median down 6.8% in the year to the end of March.
Make no mistake, this is a buyer’s market. And this news is being met by some smiling home buyers, eager to jump into the market.
‘On the ground’ we know there’s pockets of Brisbane where property is cheaper now than it’s been in at least a couple of years, while we’ve also seen some inner-city transactions happen at pretty much 2010 prices. Some of the better properties, especially those with strong locations, are still receiving multiple buyer enquiries. Like they do in any market, the quality properties still generate good interest.
None of us knows with any certainty what drives price changes. But our observation is that small price reductions have only happened in recent months where needed to get buyers to act. Conservatism reigns, the peer networks and bank manager/solicitors/adviser/butcher are all telling would-be buyers there’s bargains to be had. Make an offer, shop around. And with fewer buyers making their move some keen sellers have dropped their price to get a quick result.
So should buyers hold off for prices to drop further? We just don’t see any great pressure on sellers to go any lower. Some have to sell due to growing, shrinking and splitting households. There are no doubt some who have financial pressure – but we really aren’t witnessing much of it at all. (We’re not hearing of any job losses, ABS report savings levels up.) And yes many sellers now realise that if they sell and buy again in the same market it doesn’t really matter where prices are sitting. They’re getting on with their plans. Dropping a couple of percent to get buyers over the line. If the property’s well-promoted it rarely takes much more.
So buyers waiting for gun-at-the-head, high pressure, dump and run property prices, may well be disappointed. None of us can pick bottoms (or peaks) of markets with any accuracy and the danger is it will turn before you know it.
There’s some good buying to be had right now, often with less competition. For home buyers, especially in inner-Brisbane, this might be as good as it gets.
Tags: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Brisbane house prices, buyer enquiry, home buyers Brisbane, RP Data, selling a house Brisbane, selling an apartment Brisbane
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Posted by admin on 28 February 2011
A good friend has been looking to invest by buying a Brisbane property, but tells me his bank manager last week helped him change his mind. “He asked me if I really thought it was a good time to be buying. He didn’t seem sure that it was.”
So is it a good time to buy? We’d love to have your comments and some alternate views on these thoughts:
* Prices are generally flat and in some pockets even down a little. RP Data today reports that Brisbane’s median house price dropped 3.7% in the year to January.
* Incomes are solid and people are generally happy with their job security. Employment’s often referred to as a leading indicator of the property market.
* There’s very few forced property sales happening and it’s hard to see why prices would drop any further without employment problems.
* Interest rates are still historically low and don’t look like rising for some time yet.
* There’s a good choice of properties on the market and minimal competition from other buyers.
* Many of the places on the market are priced well. (Many sellers have worked out that if they’re buying again in the same market this can actually be a good time to move.)
* Economists says our debt levels are dropping. Many of us can afford to buy.
We’re not sure what needs to be added to this list! We understand we all like to follow a crowd when we make decisions and especially big ones like property purchases. But it’s hard to see how the timing could be better to buy Brisbane real estate.
Tags: Brisbane house prices, RP Data
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Posted by Rob Honeycombe on 8 February 2011
Floods, cyclones, bush fires… if we get a snowstorm we’ll have the full set.
This has been a start to a year unlike any I’ve seen before and home buyers and investors could be forgiven for being a little unsure of which way the market is heading. But interestingly the past two weeks has seen some of the busiest sales enquiry we’ve had to our agency in months. Maybe the Premier was right in saying we breed “tough north of the border”.
To help you make some sense of it all for Brisbane’s inner city property market, here’s a snapshot of some of the latest research commentary:
Westpac’s Chief Economist Bill Evans says interest rates will stay flat, maybe rising just a 0.25% by June 2012. At a seminar we attended this week he said the expected economic impact of the flood recovery has seen him jump his GDP forecast from 3.4% to 4.2% for 2011. He expects more than $2.5b to be spent on post flood works. Queensland’s exports remain strong and he has increased his growth expectation from 4.25% to 5% for the “sunshine” state. That seems a pretty impressive number.
Amongst a balanced range of comments he made the point that Australians are “de-leveraging” at a great rate, with our savings rate now higher than it’s been since the 1960’s. Housing affordability is not as big an issue as often proposed.
Population growth, or the cooling of its pace, has been raised as a question mark on demand. Local commentator Michael Matusik says Queensland grew by 89,000 in 2010, now a lower number than NSW and Victoria are getting. We’re not attracting the net migration we used to. But with 244 new people crossing the border each and every day (and many of them choosing inner-city Brisbane) it still seems a big number. And will Victorians and New South Welshmen stay put in future?
RP Data released 2010 stats showing Brisbane’s house price dropped 1% for the year. And amongst their data here’s the info we believe most home buyers and property investors should consider: During this past decade Brisbane’s house prices rose an average of 10.6% per annum. Over the past 5 years it was 6.6% per annum. We don’t know what they’ll do over the next 5 and 10 years and that’s exactly the point.
We were looking this morning at the true cost of owning an inner-Brisbane investment property and one real life example was $100 per week – or approx 1% of the apartment’s value. Tax deductions and strong rents shouldered much of the holding cost so if its value rises more than 1% that investor is ahead.
If you can “pick” an upcoming jump in the market you’re wiser than most. The rest of us might just recognise the long term view that’s served inner Brisbane property owners so well in the past.
Tags: Bill Evans Westpac, Brisbane house prices, Brisbane median home prices, interest rates, investment property deductions, Michael Matusik, RP Data
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Posted by Rob Honeycombe on 29 December 2010
We often hear stats on the number of home sales and for a couple of years now the volumes have been low. The other way of looking at this is to consider that Brisbane property owners are hanging onto their homes, and investments, for longer. Analysts RP Data have just confirmed this.
Brisbane houses are now owned for an average of 7.9 years, up from 6.3 years from 2005. The report looked at properties actually sold in the year to August, so like all stats you need to consider how the sample’s created. Lots of owners are hanging in there and not selling at all – so the averages will probably get longer.
So over 5 years we’ve had a rise in holding time of 25% and you have to wonder whether all those property owners are happy staying put. The reasons we all move – downsizing, upsizing, the consistent “hatches, matches and dispatches” of life – are all pressures to change home. Maybe we’re all waiting for that next boom…
Fortunately for us hungry real estate agents (minimal sympathy expected!) unit owners are a bit more regular at selling, with an average tenure of 6.2 years. That too is up from 5.2 in 2005.
So amongst all the tea-reading, tarot-carding and crystal-ball-gazing of analysts, economists and suburban real estate agents, we’ll make one prediction for the new year. In 2011 Brisbane home owners will move more often. Not much but a bit more, as job security and (relatively) low interest rates support the desire for that fresh place. Achieving a higher price than the neighbour will become less of an obsession and the volume of sales will sneak up.
And if this proves to just be wishful thinking and we’re wrong then a move to Darwin’s looking good. Their home owners sell up every 4.8 years!
Tags: Brisbane real estate agents, Brisbane real estate statistics, RP Data, selling a house Brisbane, selling an apartment Brisbane
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Posted by Rob Honeycombe on 5 October 2010
It’s hard to write an attention-grabbing headline with words like “okay” and “normal” but that’s the best way to describe our view on the current sales market in Brisbane’s inner city. The luxury end might be a bit wobbly but for most property owners there are good results to be had if they sell.
There are buyers about, they are cautious, but where they see something they want they are making reasonably quick decisions and they are paying reasonable prices. It’s rare to hear of something selling cheaper than it might have done a year or two ago. Similarly we haven’t witnessed too many record-breaking results. Prices are okay and probably nudging up slightly.
One ‘typical-ish’ recent result: we sold an apartment last week for $45,000 more than its owners had paid just two years ago, a 13% gain.
So why then do some people say it’s not a good time to sell? Maybe because we’ve become so used to high growth! Researchers RP Data wrote an interesting report on the changes to Australia’s median prices over the past thirty years, and specifically looked at the gains in 5 year lumps. Our house prices jumped a whopping 13.9% per annum from 2000 to 2005 and then a solid 7.5% pa over the past five years.
So the “I’ll wait til my price jumps another $50,000 before I sell” approach is tempting. We’re in denial that the market might have returned to a period like the 1990’s when we had 2.8% per annum growth from 1990-95 and 5.2%pa from 1995 to 2000.
Every real estate agent prays for another boom, but worn as our knees might be, we’re still getting on with making sales and helping our clients move on with their plans.
Tags: Brisbane house prices, capital gains, RP Data
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