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Posts Tagged with population growth Brisbane

Posted by admin on 25 March 2010

Brisbane housingThe ABS released their latest population data today with growth numbers to the year ending Sept 30th. Queensland’s population jumped 2.7%, with another 115,200 maroon-wearing canetoads now calling this state home.

This was a big leap faster than the national average of 2.1% and second only to WA at 2.9%. Nationally around 2-thirds of our population growth is coming through overseas migration and that’s easy to see on the streets of Brisbane. Today this is very much an international city.

As we write it’d be safe to say Queensland is passing our 4.5m mark. With almost 10,000 extra people added to our state’s population every month that’s 116 new homes needed each and every day. And we’re not keeping up.

Posted by admin on 10 March 2010

We don’t often repeat material from other people on this blog, but the below notes from prominent Brisbane property commentator Michael Matusik are as topical as they come and deserve repeating as part of the ‘debate’.  The Government wants to debate the value of population growth to our city/state/nation, but unless we erect a big fence along Australia’s coastline how would we ever stop it?

Matusik Missive – Population debacle
10th March 2010

“I was involved in last week’s Great Growth Debate held by the PCA in Brisbane. This was held as a forerunner to the Queensland government’s own debate about the same subject, to be held at the end of this month. The PCA was hoping that the “pro” side of the debate would get a better airing if they ran their own shindig. The jury still remains out on that note.

In recent weeks, I have been asked on numerous occasions what I thought was the purpose of the government’s upcoming debate. My answers included – to distract and confuse the public; to been seen to be doing something; and to remove the sale of public assets off the media’s agenda for a while. I might have even said “bogan” public, which sounds harsh, but too many (and increasingly so) of our fellow citizens are not interested in any serious debate; readily swallow the spin and are more interested in what tattoo they are going to get next, rather than how the place is run. Get rid of compulsory voting if you ask me. But I digress.

As I said in my short presentation at the PCA gig the other day, it is a waste of time debating growth – it will continue to come. We need it, and even if we wanted to stop it (or even slow it down), we are largely helpless to do so. Even “planning for growth” is a waste of time – we have more plans that you can poke a stick at. What we should be debating is “how to accommodate growth”. We need implementation. Action is what is missing, and so too is political fortitude. Whilst I agree more with Mayor Pisasale’s ideals, I also admire Mayor Abbot, for at least he stands up for what he believes in and is prepared to be voted out come the next election if his constituents disagree.

What the market wants – and by, market, I mean residents, business, investors and the development community – is certainty. Strong leadership would have conducted this growth summit before the redrafting of the SEQ regional plan. The same would apply to the koala issue; ban the banning; potential changes to land tax and the sustainability declaration, to name just a few. Future planning matters should be dealt with in an organised way, such as the prescribed five year review of the regional plan.

But at almost every turn these days the Queensland government introduces a bill into Parliament, without adequately consulting the public. Sometimes, as in the sordid land tax case, previous decisions by the court are sought to be overturned. This uncertainty broadcasts loudly to potential investors in the state, to whom a stable legal system, with an observance of the rule of law, is a precondition to any investment. And many are not happy, Anna!

Back to accommodating population growth. I suggest the following measures:

Ø Decentralise the workforce out to major greenfield estates and beyond.

Ø Encourage more competition by forcing the major developers to release stock rather than drip feeding the market. They deny it, but that is exactly what they do.

Ø Get urbanisation to work by having minimum density targets, on a sliding distance scale, around our key pieces of infrastructure.

Ø Shorten, and make development approvals easier to get. ULDA gave themselves an approval in six months. That should be the benchmark now. Proof, as they say, is in the pudding.

Ø Limit local resident involvement to architectural, land use and sometimes tenancy matters only and not in the overall quantum of a new urban development.

In order to do such, a strong top-down approach to planning is needed. This takes political guts. Bottom-up planning, where NIMBY-ism rules the roost, is not working.

Population growth is coming. We cannot stop it and I suspect that it will accelerate (in Australia at least) over coming decades rather than slow down.

Unfortunately, “development” today is a dirty word in Queensland. What is even more despicable is that the government does not appear to see land as a significant asset. Nor do they understand – well, at least it is not portrayed as such to the voting public – that value adding to our land (i.e. development) creates wealth, jobs and a more sound economic future for Queensland.

In the lead up to the government population growth summit at the end of March, I hope that these thoughts or similar get an airing. In my mind, it is vital that they do.”

Share your views on “Michael’s Blog” at www.matusik.com.au

Posted by Rob Honeycombe on 12 October 2009

PrideWe were recently asked to dust off our crystal ball for www.ourbrisbane.com and paint a picture of inner Brisbane in the year 2020. No Jetsons-like spacecraft but it still takes some getting your head around!

“I closed my apartment door and while I waited for the lift to climb to the 25th floor I glanced across to the city skyline, its buildings piercing the morning clouds and soaring through them. A quick stop for my usual caffeine fix then down into the subway for the two minute commute under the Brisbane River to Eagle Street station.”

Brisbane’s property landscape will change enormously over the next decade. An imaginary day in the year 2020 will include a Gabba resident calling a 25th storey apartment their home. A new, high speed subway will likely link that suburb, and many inner suburbs, with the offices of the lower CBD. With a scarcity of land, its office towers will probably top 100 storey.

It might be mind boggling but this vision of Brisbane is almost here.

Our population continues to grow and taller buildings are being encouraged to house these new arrivals. Many middle-ring Brisbane suburbs will resist the trend, residents unhappy for ‘seismic’ change in their neighbourhoods. But change will be relentless in the inner city as light industry and other land uses make way for apartment development. Huge tracts of land in Bowen Hills, the RNA Showgrounds amongst them, are already in planning. The Gabba, South Brisbane and Milton are some of the suburbs that will look very different by the year 2020.

The landmark Fourex brewery may well be redeveloped into apartments, shops and, hopefully, a bar or two!

Despite the State Government’s plan to decentralize its workforce by pulling 20% of its offices out of the CBD, the demand for central office space will see heights rise. Our city centre will also spread, crossing the river as South Brisbane accommodates 30 storey offices. More bridges and more tunnels will link Kangaroo Point, New Farm, Toowong and West End.

Council will spend more on parklands, greening the city like never before to counter its ‘urban-ness’. North Bank will be developed, a substantial green belt and dining precinct lining the Brisbane River alongside offices and apartments that straddle and veil the Riverside Expressway.

Planners will take advantage of this greater population, encouraging streetside cafes, arts precincts, entertainment options and cosy laneway bars. The Parmalat site (Paul’s Milk) in South Brisbane might even be the site of Brisbane’s own Opera House …

Adding almost half a million new residents by 2020, Brisbane will not be the same city as it is today. For better and for worse.

Visit the real estate pages of www.ourbrisbane.com for more interesting articles.

Posted by admin on 29 April 2009

Brisbane

The ABS has just produced their latest population numbers and confirmed Brisbane’s long running spot as the nation’s fastest growing capital. In the year to June 2008 we added 17,400 residents, with 1.03million of us now calling the city home. (That’s the Brisbane City area – the broader ’statistical’ city is closer to 2million). Assuming our usual 2.6 people per household that meant we needed to build another 6,692 dwellings in the year just to cope with the increased population.

Posted by Rob Honeycombe on 1 October 2008

trafficWe once tried to sell a South Bank apartment to a gentleman from Hong Kong who was concerned it was leasehold, with a 110 year term. When we rang with the great news that the lease term had been extended to 999 years he immediately asked “Yes but what happens to my title then?!” While he did go on to buy it (great salesperson) it’s an insight into how some people and cultures take a longer term view of life. And they plan for that future.

The ABS last month released their own very long term view – population predictions for Australia for the rest of this century. In the year 2056 Brisbane will be home to 4 million, our nation’s fastest growing capital with a more-than-sizeable jump from our current 1.8 million. The ABS medium series predicts annual growth of 1.6% in our city, so an average of approx 17,000 new homes will need to be built every year over this next half century.

What will Brisvegas look like in 2056? We know most of our growth will come from migration (Australia’s net immigration this past year was 200,000 – the highest on record) so menus are more likely to feature Mee Goreng and San Choy Bao. And if we can’t persuade the Poms to stay home it’s darts at the pub and cold pies for everyone!

Where were we 50 years ago? Brisbane had just 692,000 residents. So if you’ve never thought about writing to your local politician before, consider this – as our population more than doubles where will our water supply come from? How many lanes does Coronation Drive really need to be? While planners struggle with the politics and resident protests like: “we don’t want a crowded road while you build that new bridge”, all of us hope infrastructure is better planned in the next 50 years than during the past 50.

With residents over age 65 growing to 28% of the population (up from the current 15%) they’d better not include steps anywhere!

The ABS also made their population predictions for the start of next century, with Australia’s current 21 million tipped to top 45 million in the year 2101. And while they haven’t forecast for Brisbane, with a little crystal-balling and assuming our growth rate slows in the second half of the century here’s the Bees Nees prediction: 7 million residents.

Enjoy your quick drive home today!

Posted by admin on 5 March 2008

interest ratesThe announcement of a further 0.25% interest rate rise has predictably drawn comment that recent strong property sales volumes will slow. And we agree. There’s no doubt buyer confidence in the market will ease because this is exactly what the Reserve Bank needs. To rein in inflation the RBA needs you and I to put our wallets away. But in the face of this co-ordinated campaign to slow property sales we thought it worth reviewing some of the supply and demand issues behind Brisbane’s solid property price growth.

More people require more homes, and the ABS tells us our national population grows by 1 person every 1 minute and 42 seconds. New arrivals off the plane pretty much cancel out deaths, so every time a doctor slaps a new-born bum our country needs more homes. Queensland was the only state last year to record significant population growth (approx 24,000) while NSW the only to record a big drop (approx 24,000 – if only they would support our Origin team once they got here!).

What about ability to borrow and repay a loan? Our unemployment rate dropped again in January, now at 4.1%. And in the year to November our wages were up 5%. There’s no doubt interest rate rises will put home ownership out of many people’s reach, and these people will continue to rent, adding pressure to that surging market.

On the supply side Queensland’s building approvals dropped almost 6% in December and nationally we had a 3% drop in investment housing finance in the same month. The Housing Industry Association says we’re undersupplied by 20,000 homes and the prices of new homes are continuing to rise. In its recent HIA Trades Report it records all residential construction trades as being in short supply with SE Qld one of the most severely affected by skills shortages. If you can’t find a sparkie to fix anything it’s because they’re rated as “critical short supply”. Booms in mining, infrastructure works and commercial building are all forcing construction prices higher.

Overall we have more people earning more money needing more homes, with those homes costing more to build. In areas like Brisbane’s inner city this situation is at its strongest. So while the RBA wields its ‘rates sabre’ the decision to not buy will for many be based on fear, that strongest of investment emotions.

For those who understand the strength of demand and scarcity of supply, and recognise an opportunity, this could well be a great time to buy.

Posted by Rob Honeycombe on 31 October 2007

inner city apartmentsBrisbane’s rental market is shrugging off pressure from increased demand, with rents rising only steadily across the inner city. Latest stats from the Residential Tenancies Authority show rents are still growing, but at a slower rate than last year. The RTA tracks rents for the 21 suburbs around the CBD and shows median rents for a 2 bedroom apartment in the area grew just $5 per week over the past quarter to $385.

That’s up 7% for the past 12 months, but with an increase of 16% recorded in the previous year it appears our market’s now flattened slightly, defying predictions of continued record growth. We know our population’s growing and a quick drive through our city shows very few residential buildings under construction – so where’s the boom? Our own view ‘on the ground’ is that affordability is now cutting in and providing something of a ceiling on rent rises. There’s only so many couples that can afford $480 in rent (the new median for a 2 bed in the CBD and Spring Hill) and despite their creativity with multiplying mattresses, some of the share households max out at 5 people per apartment! While the threshold’s still pushing upwards there’s a definite thinning of enquiry once asking rents reach $500 or thereabouts.

Owner-residents are continuing to move into the city and with some larger CBD buildings converting to short-stay tenancies (often becoming badly run equivalents of small hotels), rental supply is being cut even further. Over the past year the total bonds held for rental properties in the inner city has grown by just 967 properties (or 3%) and in many suburbs there’s actually been a reduction. Less properties, more tenants. So further rent rises will have to come.

Investors still have plenty of cause to celebrate as the median rent for an inner city 2 bedroom apartment has risen 38% ($105/week) over the past 3 years. But clearly the growth rate couldn’t keep up its pace indefinitely.

If you’d like to see what’s happening with median rents in your area go to www.WhatRentMyHome.com.au for free, easy access to rental stats. This is a new site we’ve launched and you don’t need to log your name, email or any other details to get all the info.

Posted by Rob Honeycombe on 26 September 2007

boom marketThey’re just not great headlines: “Market good, some prices up strongly, other prices up a bit”. And of course it serves some peoples’ interests to talk a market up, especially if they have a bunch of new properties to sell. So amongst the repeated stories of a return to boom days, here’s a quick look at the stats and some thoughts from on the ground in Brisbane’s inner suburbs.

According to Macquarie Real Estate Brisbane’s house prices rose 9% in the first half of this year. Matusik Property Insights report a jump of 6% in the June quarter alone (yes that’s 24% annualised). These are very strong numbers from very credible sources. And with just under 50,000 people moving to Queensland in 2006 (net of those deserting us!) demand for housing is strong. Matusik rightly reports that supply is still constrained, and shortfalls in Brisbane are “acute”.

Inner city Brisbane is clearly a mixed bag with houses and many apartments suited to owner-occupants selling fast and with prices that reflect the reported stats. It’s fair to say we are going through a mini-boom in some pockets. Investors though have not yet leapt back into the market in big numbers. While rents are rising they’re not on fire, so net returns are yet to stir serious levels of interest. And investors are a little preoccupied elsewhere. ABS report a $72billion increase in Australians’ superannuation assets during the June quarter as people rushed to meet the June 30 deadline. That money’s simply not flowing back to property – yet.

So for a lot of smaller or older inner Brisbane apartments there’s now some big price savings compared to larger apartments and houses right next door, simply because there’s fewer buyers for them. The part-time developers are starting to pounce on unwanted, tired apartments and doing a Blitz/Block/Hot Property makeover, serving them back to a hungry owner-resident market. For those keen buyers who enjoy painting bathroom ceilings on their Sunday mornings there’ll no doubt be some dollars to be made!

Posted by Rob Honeycombe on 7 June 2007

West End housesIn Australia some 80% of residential rentals are provided by private landlords, so any changes in property’s appeal as an investment can have a quick and dramatic effect on rental prices. According to Macquarie Bank the UK government provides more than half of London’s rentals, and in the USA massive trusts own large tracts of residential apartment rentals. Despite having this more resilient supply source both of those countries are also witnessing strong rental growth.

Locally a number of issues have combined recently to persuade some investors away from the residential market: tax rate reductions have reduced the net benefits, the stock market’s been delivering excellent returns, and superannuation’s new tax status has seen that vehicle soak funds away from residential property. With surging housing demand (including the highest net overseas migration in 17 years) it’s no surprise most forecasters are pointing to further strong rent rises.

Queensland’s tenancy laws are currently undergoing another review and landlords are watching with interest to see whether the Residential Tenancies Authority will provide any new disincentives to property investment. As any government body should the RTA is responding to consumer concerns including the failure of some agents and owners to respect tenant’s rights. Among their proposed changes: new options for tenants to challenge rent rises, limits on inspection times and the option for some tenants to cancel their lease if the property’s up for sale.

Bees Nees City Realty have approached the RTA’s General Manager Fergus Smith for further info and he’s agreed to speak at our special breakfast for landlords on Wednesday June 20th 2007 . If you’d like to come to the breakfast as our guest and hear what changes might affect property investors RSVP’s are essential. Please email rsvp@beesnees.com.au or call Michelle on 07 3214 6888. We’re holding it at the Convention Centre at South Bank at 7.15 for 7.30am to 8.45am. Public consultation on the Act’s review closes on the 22nd June and there’s more info at www.rta.qld.gov.au

Posted by admin on 7 March 2007

Single young male Brisbanites take note – our inner city is no place to meet ladies! Occasionally we see an interesting statistic from the ABS and their latest population figures show many of our inner suburbs have a big deficiency in resident females aged 20-39. Spring Hill is our worst, with 1.5 men for every woman in that age group! Bowen Hills (1.38) and the Valley (1.29) aren’t much better. If you want to stay reasonably close to town Albion’s your best bet, with just 0.83 men for each young lady.

ABS has confirmed Brisbane City Council is Australia’s fastest growing local authority, up another 14,000 residents in the year to June 2006. That’s now jumped almost 100,000 since 2001 (so that’s who’s drinking all our water!) New Farm is our most densely populated suburb with a massive 5,500 people per square kilometre, with Kangaroo Point not far behind at 5,200.