Posted by admin on 1 December 2010
When we review the Residential Tenancies Authority’s stats each quarter we usually see what we expect: if it’s been quiet at Bees Nees with properties taking longer to rent, then official records usually show flat rents. But over the past few months, the reported data hasn’t been reflecting our on the ground experience. Our vacancy rate has been tiny (other agencies might have been a bit higher – they don’t have the talented team we do!) but the reported median rents haven’t risen.
Researchers BIS Shrapnel say Brisbane should expect annual rent rises of 5 to 7% over the next couple of years as housing supply struggles to keep up. ABS data shows housing approvals at a 15 month low. Any quick glance across Brisbane’s inner-city tells a story: there’s only a couple of cranes working on residential towers, new low-rise and townhouse projects are almost non-existent, and it’s been that way for most of the past 4 years.
There are some reasons to explain the flat rents to date, in spite of the lack of new housing. Population growth has slowed, international student numbers (a huge market for the CBD and immediate surround especially) have cooled a little, some tenants bought their own homes with the First Home Boost, and yes, we are putting more people into the same number of homes with 20-somethings staying at home, group households and sharing increasing etc.
But as incomes grow do you really think parents are going to let those kids freeload much longer? Mums and dads have waited a long time for that quiet home! And share households have a tolerance breaking point when that dishwashing-incapable toilet-seat-leaver-upper, smelly and inconsiderate flatmate just isn’t worth the rarely-paid-on-time rent!
It’s starting to look like there’s no more room at the Inn for Brisbane’s inner city tenant market, and BIS Shrapnel’s forecast would be a welcome reward for patient property investors in 2011.
Tags: Australian Bureau of Statistics, BIS Shrapnel property research, Brisbane apartments, Brisbane housing supply, Brisbane rents, Brisbane tenants, Brisbane vacancy rates, international students Brisbane
Posted in Brisbane landlords, Brisbane's rental market | No Comments »
Posted by admin on 20 October 2010
Half of Australia’s home buyers say prices are on the rise, with most believing this is due to a shortage of places for sale.
In one of the largest research projects in recent months realestate.com.au had 4,082 visitors to their portal complete a survey.
And encouragingly for those of you thinking of selling, half of buyers say prices are going up, 39% think they’re just stable and only 12% say they’re moving downwards. The same survey one year earlier had only 18% believing prices were rising. That’s a big turnaround.
When asked why prices might be rising 54% said there wasn’t enough for sale. The improving economy (40%) and the return of property investors to the market (35%) were also chosen as reasons for current price growth.
You can read too much into these surveys. But with such a big survey sample it should be fairly representative of buyers’ views.
Tags: Brisbane home prices, Brisbane housing supply, home buyers Brisbane, selling a house Brisbane, selling an apartment Brisbane, www.realestate.com.au
Posted in Brisbane's sales market, trends in Brisbane property | No Comments »
Posted by Rob Honeycombe on 28 May 2010
Amongst the mile of changes to our tax system recommended by the Henry Review, there’s one that many in the property industry have dismissed out of hand. Mr Henry and Co. proposed that land tax should be paid by all property owners.
It’s controversial because it’d be a massive increase on the current land taxes that only apply once you own a minimum value of property (unimproved or UCV – see your rates notice for yours). In Queensland it’s currently $350,000 for company-owned or $600,000 for individuals (approx 2 good Brisbane houses).
But maybe the critics have been too hasty – and hear us out here! Henry suggests a simultaneous scrapping of stamp duties on the transfer of property, arguing this tax leads to inefficient use of our housing stock. A typical inner Brisbane house purchase costs the buyer $22,000 in stamp duty ($15,000 if they’re owner-occupying) and this high cost penalises the changeover of housing. Empty-nesters for example are staying in the 4 bedder long after the kids have left home and the spare bedrooms aren’t been used.
An ABS survey suggests one in six Queenslanders have been in their home for longer than 20 years. They also found 14% of us move to get a bigger place, compared to less than 3% who downsize. Addressing the housing affordability issue, Henry says less hurdles to moving will encourage us to a smaller place. Why not swap the spare bedrooms for a more modern place with other features we want?
The States will rightly be nervous of scrapping stamp duties, with more than 40% of their income coming from property transactions. But a broad land tax would be more predictable and allow better govt budgeting. Of course as real estate agents we love the idea – we’d vote for a mandatory 5 years maximum in your home!
But what do you think? Would you prefer to pay land tax or stamp duty? Please post your comments.
Tags: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Brisbane housing supply, Henry Review of tax, land tax, stamp duty Queensland, Unimproved Capital Valuation Brisbane
Posted in property taxes and rates etc | 4 Comments »
Posted by admin on 19 May 2010
It takes more than 3 months to get the final data so it’s only now we can look back at 2009 and make an accurate assessment of what the Woolloongabba real estate market really did. And if it seemed just as slow as 2008 the graph below shows you’re right.
During 2008 and 2009 sales numbers for both houses and apartments have shown a 50% decrease in volume from the previous two years. This possibly shows owners holding onto properties during what everyone thought was going to be a tough time, and waiting for things to improve before putting their property on the market. The median house price for 2009 was $555,000 while for 2008 it was $620,000, though the figure for 2009 was also affected by first home buyers using the government’s $14,000 grant. Early figures for 2010 are optimistic albeit the number of properties for sale is low. When sale volumes are down sellers can see strong price results as there’s less competition.
Tags: Brisbane apartment prices, Brisbane house prices, Brisbane housing supply, first home owners
Posted in Brisbane's sales market, Woolloongabba | No Comments »
Posted by admin on 14 April 2010
The latest rental stats have been released and they help explain the large number of rentals currently available. Here’s our Research team’s media release:
Brisbane’s rental market has had a massive boost, with over 1100 homes added to the rental pool in the first quarter of 2010. According to new Residential Tenancies Authority stats the past year’s decline in the number of rented homes has finally stopped.
Bees Nees Research Managing Director, Rob Honeycombe says investors have replaced first home buyers and are offering Brisbane’s tenants more choice.
“Investors have been sitting on the sidelines and during 2009 the rental pool just continued to shrink. There’s now a lot more confidence in bricks and mortar and the RTA stats show property investors have started to dive in,” Mr Honeycombe said.
The RTA track all rental bonds and across Brisbane the total leapt by 1145 in the March quarter. Mr Honeycombe said this data followed this week’s ABS finance stats which showed investors’ share of lending is growing strongly.
“The inner city has been the standout, with 693 extra rental homes added since the start of 2010. That’s more growth in a quarter than we’ve seen since 2006.”
Mr Honeycombe said rents had mostly showed small gains, with Brisbane’s median 2 bedroom apartment rent now at $365 per week.
To get the latest median rent for your suburb visit www.WhatRentMyHome.com.au
Tags: Brisbane housing supply, Brisbane real estate statistics, Brisbane rents, median rents Brisbane, rental supply Brisbane, Residential Tenancies Authority, tenant marketing Brisbane
Posted in Brisbane landlords, trends in Brisbane property | No Comments »
Posted by admin on 25 March 2010
The ABS released their latest population data today with growth numbers to the year ending Sept 30th. Queensland’s population jumped 2.7%, with another 115,200 maroon-wearing canetoads now calling this state home.
This was a big leap faster than the national average of 2.1% and second only to WA at 2.9%. Nationally around 2-thirds of our population growth is coming through overseas migration and that’s easy to see on the streets of Brisbane. Today this is very much an international city.
As we write it’d be safe to say Queensland is passing our 4.5m mark. With almost 10,000 extra people added to our state’s population every month that’s 116 new homes needed each and every day. And we’re not keeping up.
Tags: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Brisbane housing supply, migration to Brisbane, population growth Brisbane
Posted in trends in Brisbane property | No Comments »
Posted by Rob Honeycombe on 17 July 2009
We’ve been tracking the number of homes for sale in postcode 4101 (West End, Highgate Hill and South Brisbane) and there’s been a very strong drop in recent weeks. The graph below shows how quick the change has been.
* The total number of apartments and houses for sale in the 4101 peninsula has dropped 32% over the past 5 months;
* 287 places for sale in March but now just 195
*This area had 598 sales in 2008 so this reflects a market that’s well and truly undersupplied. There are still buyers looking but many sellers are holding their houses and apartments off the market.
* Sales volumes in the first quarter of 2009 totalled 140, pretty much in line with 2008, so the market is still steady.
So with just 195 homes on the market right now we have just 4.2 months supply – down from more than 6 months supply in March.
Other suburbs are suffering similar undersupplies. One western suburbs agent told us last week their office had just one apartment for sale – in an office of 15 salespeople!
Perhaps not surprisingly 3 of our last 8 sales have been for full asking price, and in one case, more than the list price. This is nowhere near a boom market but for some sellers it’s a great opportunity.
Tags: Brisbane housing supply, full asking price, housing undersupply Brisbane, sales volumes Brisbane
Posted in Brisbane's sales market, Highgate Hill, South Brisbane and South Bank, West End | No Comments »
Posted by Rob Honeycombe on 8 April 2009
So the Reserve Bank dropped official rates yesterday and we now have a cash rate of 3%, the lowest since 1960. What’s next from the government for property? We all know confidence remains low but (while not wanting to talk things up) the worst may be over for real estate. In March the major property web portals had another big jump in traffic. Almost 5 million visitors went to realestate.com.au, up 11% on the same time last year.
Some markets (but not all) are witnessing more sales. In making the rate cut announcement the Reserve Bank’s Governor confirmed there’s been more activity. “Demand for credit is weak overall, though credit for owner‑occupied housing is picking up”, he said. The chatter about the market right now is getting more positive. The big surge of course has been from first home buyers, keen to take up the $7000 boost to the usual grants. In the last quarter of 2008 the govt handed out 7,659 FHOG giftbags, up a whopping 39% on the previous 3 months. And we can’t help wondering if Swan and Rudd will feel that when the boost offer expires on June 30th it’ll be time to shift their support to another market.
Reserve Bank deputy Ric Battellino might agree. He last week told a Brisbane seminar the grant’s benefits could quickly be eroded. “By all accounts the bottom end of the housing market has picked up a lot in recent times and it doesn’t take long for the average house price to increase by $20,000 and leave the homebuyers no better off than they were before.” Market analyst Michael Matusik is opposed to the grant. “The FHOG is inflationary, distorts the normal cycle and creates few new homes over the longer term.” He argues in a time of undersupply we should have incentives to build new housing.
Some commentators worry that removing the first home boost will punish the lower end of the market. But our view is there’s a whole bunch of forgotten buyers on the sidelines getting closer to acting. Investors might just be the next busy audience as they recognise the opportunities on offer.
How should the government support the housing market? We’d love to hear your comments…
Tags: Brisbane home prices, Brisbane housing supply, first home buyers, interest rates, Michael Matusik, Reserve Bank, www.realestate.com.au
Posted in Brisbane's sales market, property taxes and rates etc, trends in Brisbane property | 1 Comment »
Posted by Rob Honeycombe on 10 September 2008
Beggars, as most first home buyers consider themselves, can not be choosers. So the September 1st cut in their stamp duty thresholds are definitely welcome. In the Sunshine State there’s now zero duty on a first home of $500,000 or less, up from the previous cut-off of $350k. Despite the recent interest rates cuts it’s still tough to get into the market so governments need to act. All other owner-occupiers got a small reduction too with the 1% flat rate extending to $350k, up from $320k. These are all great news for home buyers in Bundaberg and Cooktown. But in downtown Brisvegas they’re the proverbial drop in the bucket. We don’t have too many $400,000 homes! The first home buyer concessions stop at $550k, so for example buying a $750k home to occupy will come with a stamps bill of $19,600, down just $150 since the changes.
Now we don’t want to be seen to be ungrateful… but is $150 really going to help inner-Brisbane home buyers? Pizza and beer on move-in night maybe, while the government coffers swell with another twenty grand.
Hidden in the government’s detail is the increase on duty for investment purchases. That same $750,000 property bought as a rental now has a tax grab of $26,775, up $500 since Captain Bligh’s changes! This will flow on to tenants in higher rents of course, possibly reducing their savings and guaranteeing they never take advantage of those lower duties on their own purchase!
Meantime this week’s new ABS construction stats show loans for new houses have dropped to their lowest level since 2002. We’re not building enough and ANZ Bank’s senior economist says the growing housing shortage is setting the scene for “the mother of all housing booms”. They say pent-up housing demand is heading for record levels.
Serious initiatives have to be looked at for improving the supply of new housing, including long overdue reductions in taxes on new land releases. For inner city suburbs what about Morris Iemma’s idea (remember, used to be the NSW Premier!) for home owners to build and rent a “Fonzie Flat” in the backyard. Fonzie starred in TV’s “Happy Days” and his was over the garage. Morris suggested owners could earn rent from the flats but still retain the Capital Gains Tax exemption for their otherwise owner-occupied homes.
In the meantime maybe that $150 stamps reduction could be changed to a free letterbox for every new home built?!
Tags: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Brisbane housing supply, capital gains tax, first home owners, stamp duty Queensland
Posted in property taxes and rates etc | No Comments »
Posted by admin on 29 May 2008
We didn’t spot any Councillors in the audience but around the same time of Bees Nees seminar last week and our ‘sneak-peek’ at property in the year 2020, BCC has moved to allow greater building heights in the South Brisbane/West End area. The Lord Mayor’s been quoted supporting up to 30 storey in selected near-city areas and up to 12 storey along the river.
Contemplating the population targets set by the State Government, the Brisbane City Council is looking to areas surrounding the CBD, and taller towers to accommodate more people. The announcement’s generated the odd headline or two but it seems the broader public may be accepting Brisbane’s evolution in this direction.
More than 240 locals attended our 2020 seminar, with local resident and planner Andrew Crawford mapping out this pocket’s transition, and market commentator Michael Matusik offering his insight. Michael reminded us that looking back 12 years our median house sale was just $132,750, and with that now past $600,000 it isn’t hard to imagine his predicted $1.5million price tag in the year 2020.
Notes from the seminar are available at the Research page of our website, along with a link to Michael’s full presentation. We hope you find it interesting.
Tags: Brisbane City Council, Brisbane home design, Brisbane housing supply, Michael Matusik
Posted in Brisbane's sales market, South Brisbane and South Bank, trends in Brisbane property | No Comments »
When we review the Residential Tenancies Authority’s stats each quarter we usually see what we expect: if it’s been quiet at Bees Nees with properties taking longer to rent, then official records usually show flat rents. But over the past few months, the reported data hasn’t been reflecting our on the ground experience. Our vacancy rate has been tiny (other agencies might have been a bit higher – they don’t have the talented team we do!) but the reported median rents haven’t risen.
