Brisbane's sales market, South Brisbane and South Bank

The ups and downs of Brisbane’s real estate market

What’s really happening in Brisbane’s real estate market right now? Which answer would you like?! The various data coming through is a real mixed bag at the moment so whether you’re buying or selling you’ll find some home price stats to back up your argument.

Researchers from RP Data report a 0.2% drop in Brisbane’s median dwelling price during July to be 3% down on the same time last year. Much of our price slide happened in early 2011 so those year on year figures are improving. RP Data say there’s still a lot of unsold listings on the market, preventing prices from rising.

NAB surveyed 300 “industry professionals” and had a finding that Queensland’s house prices will drop another 0.8 per cent during 2012, before rebounding strongly in the first half of next year to be 0.5 per cent higher than now. They should then gain a further 2.5 per cent in the ensuing financial year, the respondents say.

BIS Shrapnel’s June report claimed Brisbane house prices will step up 20% over the next 3 years. Naturally agents across the city are endorsing this one!

Our own number-crunching of inner-Brisbane’s suburbs shows turnover is down, and in many areas down even on 2011’s sales figures. South Brisbane is a popular suburb, was just named Australia’s top suburb by Your Investment Property Magazine, and we have a strong database of buyers wanting this thriving location. But in the first third of 2012 we had just 34 apartments and 2 houses change hands in South Brisbane. That’s four months of sales, across a fairly big suburb. In this and similar suburbs we are now recording the lowest turnover of property that’s been seen since the mid 1980’s.

Interestingly in many inner-Brisbane suburbs we don’t have a lot of supply. In fact we’d suggest the low turnover is often due to sellers withholding from going to market, and buyers being unsatisfied with the current market offerings. In our experience new listings can often create a flurry of interest and, in some cases, prices that exceed expectations.

Bumping along the bottom, poised for a surge, small drops still to come. We’re hearing these summaries from all fronts. And perhaps the best way to know when a market has bottomed is when both sides of the price argument can find evidence to back their case!

Please give us your take on the current market for Brisbane’s home prices!